Tories resigned to Bill C-38

The Libs outfoxed the Tories last week. The bottom line is that the next election will likely be either in the fall or next spring. The Conservatives are resigned to the fact that the controversial same-sex civil marriage bill will pass this week and say they won't put up much of a fight to keep the House sitting beyond this week since the governing Liberals, who outfoxed them last week on the contentious $4.6-billion NDPLiberal budget bill, apparently plan to bring in closure on the same-sex bill as well. Conservative MP John Reynolds (West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, B.C.), his party's election campaign chair, told The Hill Timesthat the passage of the same-sex marriage Bill C-38 is a foregone conclusion since his party does not have the numbers to defeat it and that a majority of the MPs from the other three parties in the House support it. He predicted that the government will bring closure to the debate on C-38 and that the bill will be passed on or before Tuesday, June 28, based on conversations with other Liberal MPs, he said. Declared Mr. Reynolds: "Well, we can't , the numbers aren't there. We know that.That bill will pass." The Conservatives also need to do enough in order to claim that they made a principled stand. But earlier last week, both sides were vowing to sit all summer over Bill C-38. Meanwhile, as pundits took to the airwaves to point out that Conservative Party Leader Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) looked like a "loser"because he and his party got caught napping on Bill C-48, Mr. Reynolds strenuously defended his leader. Mr. Reynolds said the fact that the Conservatives got hood-winked by the Liberals on Bill C-48 won't affect Mr. Harper's leadership. The Tories publicly announced and tried to defeat the government first on May 19 and lost and again last week lost by five votes. Seven Conservatives were missing on Thursday night's vote: Bev Oda, John Cummins, Randy White, David Chatters, Gerald Keddy, Myron Thompson and John Williams. Meanwhile, according to an email sent by Chief Government Whip Karen Redman's (Kitchener Centre, Ont.) office to Liberal MPs on Thursday and obtained by The Hill Times, the debate on C-38 will start on Monday at noon and will last until two p.m. and then will restart at approximately 3:15 p.m. and will last until midnight. With the governing Liberals outfoxing the Conservatives on the budget bill C-48, it now means there's a bottom line. The Libs outfoxed the Tories last week. The bottom line is that the next election will likely be either in the fall or next spring. The Conservatives are resigned to the fact that the controversial same-sex civil marriage bill will pass this week and say they won't put up much of a fight to keep the House sitting beyond this week since the governing Liberals, who outfoxed them last week on the contentious $4.6-billion NDPLiberal budget bill, apparently plan to bring in closure on the same-sex bill as well. Conservative MP John Reynolds (West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, B.C.), his party's election campaign chair, told The Hill Timesthat the passage of the same-sex marriage Bill C-38 is a foregone conclusion since his party does not have the numbers to defeat it and that a majority of the MPs from the other three parties in the House support it. He predicted that the government will bring closure to the debate on C-38 and that the bill will be passed on or before Tuesday, June 28, based on conversations with other Liberal MPs, he said. Declared Mr. Reynolds: "Well, we can't , the numbers aren't there. We know that.That bill will pass." The Conservatives also need to do enough in order to claim that they made a principled stand. But earlier last week, both sides were vowing to sit all summer over Bill C-38. Meanwhile, as pundits took to the airwaves to point out that Conservative Party Leader Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) looked like a "loser"because he and his party got caught napping on Bill C-48, Mr. Reynolds strenuously defended his leader. Mr. Reynolds said the fact that the Conservatives got hood-winked by the Liberals on Bill C-48 won't affect Mr. Harper's leadership. The Tories publicly announced and tried to defeat the government first on May 19 and lost and again last week lost by five votes. Seven Conservatives were missing on Thursday night's vote: Bev Oda, John Cummins, Randy White, David Chatters, Gerald Keddy, Myron Thompson and John Williams. Meanwhile, according to an email sent by Chief Government Whip Karen Redman's (Kitchener Centre, Ont.) office to Liberal MPs on Thursday and obtained by The Hill Times, the debate on C-38 will start on Monday at noon and will last until two p.m. and then will restart at approximately 3:15 p.m. and will last until midnight. With the governing Liberals outfoxing the Conservatives on the budget bill C-48, it now means there's a bottom line. "The bottom line is the election is postponed until some time either to the fall or the spring," said one top Liberal source in an interview with The Hill Times last week. "They caught the other guys napping." Indeed. The Liberals passed the $4.6-billion NDP-Liberal budget bill on Thursday night at close to midnight, after blind-siding the Conservatives and once they realized they had the Bloc Quebecois on side to cut off debate on the Bill C-48. The Liberals decided then to hold the actual budget bill when six Conservative MPs were absent. The budget passed 152-147. Next up is the Bill C-38. One top Liberal told The Hill Times that the Liberal MPs'petition presented to Prime Minister Paul Martin (LaSalle-Emard, Que.) on June 16, combined with the fact that "the gang got to him,"meaning top staffers and regional caucus chairs behind the scenes on the weekend of June 18- 19 "was enough to confirm to the Prime Minister that he has the numbers and it's safe to take this route, because there's no way" they were not going to jeopardize the budget bill over the same-sex bill. Moreover, the Prime Minister was further emboldened to get the controversial samesex bill passed before the summer break because of the increasingly strong appeal of putting some distance between the next federal election and any vote on the same-sex issue. That, combined with the fact that the bill will eventually be passed either now or in the fall, helped propel the Prime Minister into action, said the top Liberal source. "There seemed to be a sort of air of resignation and that it's going to happen at some point, and the idea of putting distance between its passage and the next election is quite appealing to a number of people," said the Liberal, who said the Liberals who are concerned about it as an issue, have also been talking about how for Ontario provincial Liberals it was an issue "for about 20 minutes" and "it just dropped." The federal Liberals also think that the same thing will apply here and if they can get the summer under their belt, "This thing is gone, off the screen and it won't even be an issue in the next election." That's not to say there won't be any missing Liberals when the vote takes place this week, however. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister and some top PMO staffers were equivocating the week before last about bringing Bill C-38 in or waiting until the fall and that was because of the "absolute imperative"to get the second budget bill passed, said the Liberal. The Liberal source said the "hardcores" who are against the same-sex marriage legislation were still being closely watched by the PMO, and were monitored very carefully last week on the votes in the Commons. Thirty three Liberal MPs previously voted against C-38 when it was at second reading. The government won that vote 164-138 on May 4.This prompted former Liberal MP Pat O'Brien (London-Fanshawe, Ont.) to leave the Liberal caucus to sit as an Independent MP, saying that he would do whatever he could democratically to defeat the same-sex marriage legislation, prompting further fears that Liberal backbenchers could be compelled to defeat the government on the budget bill in order to defeat C-38. On Thursday night, Liberal MPs Lawrence MacAulay (Cardigan, P.E.I.), Tom Wappel (Scarborough Southwest, Ont.), Colleen Beaumier (Brampton West, Ont.), Ray Bonin (Nickel Belt, Ont.), Dan McTeague (Pickering-Scarborough East, Ont.), Alan Tonks (York South- Weston, Ont.), Roger Gallaway (Sarnia- Lambton, Ont.), Charles Hubbard (Miramichi, N.B.), Paul Steckle (Huron Bruce, Ont.), Paul Szabo (Mississauga South, Ont.), Judi Longfield (Whitby-Oshawa, Ont.), Rose-Marie Ur (Middlesex-Kent-Lambton, Ont.), Massimo Pacetti (Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel, Que.), Francis Scarpaleggia (Lac-Saint-Louis, Que.) and former Liberals-turned-Independent MPs David Kigour (Edmonton-Beaumont, Alta.) and Pat O'Brien all voted against extending the House sittings. At the same time, there are Liberals who don't like the PMO's strategy and "think this is a Machiavellian tactic and this would be an opportune time for Martin to have the election." After weeks of speculation, the House voted to extend its sittings last Thursday to pass both the budget bill, C-48, and C-38, before the end of the current session. MPs voted to keep the House going despite serious opposition from the Conservatives and Liberal backbenchers against the same-sex marriage bill. Two weeks ago, the Conservative Party proposed a deal to the Liberal government, saying that they would stop filibustering the budget bill C-48 in order to get it passed if the government pushed passage of C-38 off until the fall. Government House Leader Tony Valeri (Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Ont.) repeatedly said he would make no deals and that he hoped to get C-48 to the Senate and that he wanted to get C-38 passed at the report stage. Meanwhile, Mr. Reynolds said the Conservatives will carry on their summer strategy as outlined before. He said Mr. Harper will travel across the country and will explain his party's position on a variety of issues. Mr. Harper intends to spend 60 to 70 per cent of his time in the vote-rich province of Ontario where the party needs a maximum number of seats if they want to form the next minority or majority government. He's also likely to release some parts of the party platform, said Mr. Reynolds. arana@hilltimes.com kmalloy@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

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Tories resigned to Bill C-38

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