For better or for worse, the future of Canada-U.S. relations will evolve

In 1939, distinguished Canadian historian Arthur Lower opined that Canadians and Americans were bound together in so many ways that they “resemble a married couple, who must take each other for better or for worse.” The ensuing years have brought their significant ups and downs, but the relationship has endured. Some U.S. administrations, such as those of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, have been unpopular in Canada. Concerns typically stemmed from what many Canadians saw as a “cowboy mindset.” The Trump era has nonetheless strained the conjugal bonds between Canadians and Americans in fundamental ways. While past U.S. administrations have threatened consequences for non-co-operation on certain policy or military issues, they never directly threatened Canada itself. President Donald Trump, by contrast, threatened the “ruination” of the Canadian economy, declared Canada a threat to national security, and publicly belittled Canadian leaders. These attacks have changed the fundamental perception of the United States in the eyes of many Canadians. Whereas, pre-Trump, the U.S. was basically seen as a powerful, stable country occasionally prone to misdirection, it is now seen as an erratic, self-pitying brute that relishes bullying its friends and cavorting with its traditional enemies. The coronavirus has arguably added a sense of pity to this perceptions list. America in the Trump era is a hard friend to have. Those governors, premiers, military leaders, diplomats, businesspeople, and others whose networks, goodwill, and collaborative spirit keep the Canada-U.S. relationship on a stable track have had to work overtime to avoid disaster. Nevertheless, in bilateral relations, as in marriages, things that are said and done often cannot be easily undone. The consequences of this era will resonate for years to come. At the same time, a real diminishment of bilateral ties would have profoundly negative impacts for both countries. The Canadian strategy has been to try to keep things on track by focusing on its essential interests, looking for initiatives on which to co-operate and, importantly, avoiding public criticism of President Trump. Many American advocates of the relationship have followed the same model. By maintaining a businesslike, but not especially close, relationship, the myriad of day-to-day initiatives, ranging from Shiprider to intelligence sharing to managing wireless spectrum bands at the border can continue unimpeded. Looking ahead, three factors will define the Canada-U.S. relationship over the next decade. The first is the degree to which the loss of trust by Canadians in Americans persists. Based on informal conversations, it is notable how many Canadians with past or present experience at the elite levels of Canada’s government, business, and academic institutions have grown deeply skeptical of the United States. A number have privately commented of late that Canada needs a fundamental re-think of its relations with the United States. By contrast, many American observers seem blissfully unaware of the extent of this loss of faith. In order to not make things worse, sensitive issues, including the re-opening of the border, need to be deftly handled. Fortunately, to date, they have been. The second factor is the extent to which the United States faces an institutional or national unity crisis. The extreme levels of political polarization coupled with the penchant of political leaders to question the trustworthiness of virtually every public institution, including elections, is incredibly dangerous. What happens in America always impacts Canada. One can only hope for the sake of both countries that these tendencies pass. The third factor pertains to the North American impacts of global trends. One consequence of the coronavirus pandemic seems to be that the United States and China are now inexorably on a path to a new Cold War. How Canada navigates this geopolitical reality will inevitably impact its bilateral relationship with the United States. The ties that bind Canada and the United States together run deep and the “marriage” will persist for many years to come. Yet, just as modes of marriage have grown and changed in our societies, so will the “bilateral marriage” evolve. After the acrimony of recent years, it will take time for Canada and the United States to learn to love and trust each other again. In the coming years, the two countries may have something like a commuter marriage in which they substantially follow their own professional paths but vacation and spend weekends together. It may not look like Lower’s 1939 relationship, but it will nonetheless be marriage. Eric Miller is president of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group and a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. The Hill Times

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For better or for worse, the future of Canada-U.S. relations will evolve

The Trump era has strained the conjugal bonds between Canadians and Americans in fundamental ways.

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