Air transport system’s road to recovery will be long and challenging

The air transport system was severely hit by the global pandemic due to restrictions on air travel—locally nationally, and globally. While the path to recovery will require diverse measures to safeguard players in the system, sustainability must be top of mind in the process. The air transport system consists of a number of key players, including original equipment manufacturers (OEM), suppliers, manufacturers, repair and overhaul (MRO) businesses, airline companies, airports, and air traffic managers, while other stakeholders include regulators and passengers. With so many players in this system, the impact of the pandemic is clearly immense. Prior to the pandemic, the aviation outlook forecasted increased demand and rapid growth for air travel. Estimates suggested that demand for air transport would increase by an average of 4.3 per cent per annum over the next 20 years. In order to comply with global climate policy and accommodate passenger growth forecasts, the industry agreed to significantly reduce emissions, and this was supported with clear goals: by 2050, the industry had set itself the goal of halving carbon dioxide emissions as measured in 2005. The outlook for the aerospace sector prior to the pandemic was also positive. Industry consensus of global aircraft demand for 2020-2030 was that the market needed around 21,760 new aircraft. This was also supported with clear goals for sustainability, and the sector was working towards a number of objectives: cleaner technologies, lighter aircraft; leaner product design and development; more effective lifecycle thinking approaches, to name a few. But whether people travel or not is what drives the air transport system. The plunge in global passenger traffic deeply impacted the demand for new aircraft, triggering a reduction in demand, supply interruptions, financial pressure and workforce reduction, resulting in one of the largest global shocks in the industry’s history. The future must be leaner and greener Fighting climate change will remain a high priority for governments around the world. Post-crisis, the industry must recover with a low-carbon future in mind. There is a clear opportunity to rethink its operating model and make sure it is investing in ways that will enable its long-term survival, and this depends heavily on a fully sustainable recovery. A holistic approach is needed, and should include the three pillars of sustainability: economic, social and environmental dimensions. Undoubtedly, the social and environmental dimensions will highly depend on the economic ability to implement them, yet the other way around is also true, since the resilience of the industry depends on prioritizing the environmental and social challenges it faces. Reducing costs will be the key to economic recovery, but stakeholders must honour their commitments on climate change. Certainly there is a lot to do for the economic recovery of the industry, but two approaches seem to be imperative as related to sustainability: financial stimuli and design innovation. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates the aviation sector will require a cash infusion of up to $200-billion. Government financial support programs will be needed for airlines and OEMs and their suppliers in the aircraft production ecosystem. While known measures will be taken to prompt economic recovery, some of these must be linked to sustainability, and should come with conditions attached to serve both public and the interests of the planet over the longer term, encouraging the reduction of carbon footprints. The aerospace sector must also design innovative new systems, processes, tools, and technologies to be inherently better than before, and work towards a sustainability model that meets the demands of the climate challenge. Design innovation investments should take place in several areas. First, major investments should be made in innovative, cutting-edge technologies such as ultra-light and high-performance materials, hybrid and electric aircraft, autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence and big data. These technologies can help increase safety, efficiency, and sustainability and also improve aviation infrastructure and airspace utilization. Another area of investment is in alternative fuels that have the potential to cut any greenhouse gas emissions to zero. Hydrogen and ammonia appear to be very promising electrofuels to fully cut carbon emissions. And finally, operational advances must be considered: the sector should capitalize on this period to improve operations by deploying digital capabilities and new ways of working to better prepare for the business recovery in manufacturing, supply chain and MRO. With the significant impact on all stakeholders in the air transport system, the road to recovery will be long and challenging. It will be of paramount importance to consider environmental impact goals in the economic recovery and in the design of new technology, use of alternative fuels, and operational advances. The current crisis presents the entire industry with an opportunity to rethink its operating model and to ensure that investments made can enable it to meet its environmental goals and create a sustainable future for itself. Dr. Nadia Bhuiyan is a professor in the department of mechanical, industrial, and aerospace engineering at the Gina Cody School of Engineering and Computer Science at Concordia University. Dr. Bhuiyan served as associate director and director of education of the Concordia Institute of Aerospace Design and Innovation, and director of the master of aerospace engineering program. She currently serves as vice-provost of partnerships and experiential learning. The Hill Times