What happened to the Liberal brand?

HALIFAX—When Justin Trudeau became the leader of the Liberal Party back in 2013, it was nothing short of a coronation. He won handily on the first ballot and proceeded to bring the party back to life at perhaps the most vulnerable time in its history. Often referred to as the country’s “natural governing party,” the Liberal machine lost its momentum when the sponsorship scandal of the early 2000s combined with the success of the unite-the-right movement to remove the Liberals from power for nearly a decade. Then-prime minister Stephen Harper governed for three successive terms, as Liberal leaders Stéphane Dion and then Michael Ignatieff let Conservative attack ads define them. Jack Layton and the NDP were making historic gains at the Liberals’ expense and the Greens were emerging as potential player. At that time, it was not inconceivable that the natural governing party would fade into non-existence. But then, enter Justin Trudeau: a wildly charismatic, smooth-talking celebrity who represented Canada’s only real political dynasty. He was young and energetic and brought a refreshing perspective to Canada’s most vexing policy challenges. He was not a complete departure from the past in that he willingly carried the Liberal banner, but once he became the leader, he was intent on making that banner his own. He cut ties with the past by ejecting the Liberal Senators from caucus, a decision that foreshadowed his plans to overhaul the Senate appointments process once he became prime minister. He brought in a whole new slate of candidates, many of them considered “stars” for their impressive CVs, name recognition, and accomplishments. The party’s 2015 platform was broad in terms of the range of areas it covered and deep in its willingness to tackle meaningful institutional reform and, most importantly, to repair Canada’s relationship with Indigenous peoples. During Trudeau’s first days in office, Ottawa had an unusual sense of exuberance and lightness. He appointed a gender-equal cabinet, he enjoyed an easy, respectful exchange with the press, and he engaged positively with other political leaders, including Indigenous leaders, provincial premiers, mayors, and foreign counterparts. But alas, not everything went as planned. Electoral reform was shelved about halfway into the mandate, the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline has been a divisive fiasco that continues to explode, and Indigenous reconciliation remains elusive. That said, reforms to pensions and the child benefit have gone over well and the, depending on who you ask and when, the economy isn’t doing so badly either. While not many people expected Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberals to claim the kind of resounding victory in 2019 that they did four years ago, most expected a second term. But then 2019 hit. First, a seemingly routine cabinet shuffle turned into a scandal when Jody Wilson-Raybould told Canadians that she had been removed from her post as minister of justice and attorney general for Canada due to her unwillingness to pursue a deferred prosecution arrangement for SNC Lavalin. She alleged that the clerk of the Privy Council, PMO staffers, and the prime minister himself had consistently and inappropriately pressured her to find a deal for the Liberal-friendly company and, eventually, both Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott not only left cabinet but were removed from caucus as a result of these events. This was disastrous for the Trudeau brand; it struck at the heart of his commitment to gender equity, reconciliation, and doing government differently. In the early summer, it looked like the Liberals might rebound from all of it, but the campaign has proven to be even worse for the prime minister. Photos of a young Trudeau in blackface have turned the campaign on its head, as questions abound about whether Trudeau is really the transformative agent he promised us he was. There is at least one factor that the SNC-Lavalin affair and the blackface photos have in common: these are about Trudeau, not the Liberals. Neither of these issues calls into question the Liberals’ policies or priorities; both relate to Trudeau’s judgment and character. So, at this point, six years after he began to rebuild the party by lending it his brand, he’s facing a scenario where the party might be better of without it. One thing that Canadian politicians are traditionally very bad at is succession planning. We are not like the United States where a president gets a maximum of two terms and, therefore, planning for the next president is natural and expected. Here in Canada, any discussion of who in the party might replace the existing leader is treated as a naked power grab that is likely to be shut down by the leader’s office. But, depending on the results of the October election and whether Trudeau’s personal brand can recover, the Liberals might end up having conversations about the future—an outcome that was virtually unthinkable only four years ago. Dr. Lori Turnbull is the director of the School of Public Administration at Dalhousie University in Halifax. The Hill Times

What happened to the Liberal brand?

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What happened to the Liberal brand?

There is at least one factor that the SNC-Lavalin affair and the blackface photos have in common: these are about Justin Trudeau, not the Liberals.

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