Shift in U.S.-Saudi Arabia relations could mean a wake-up call for Canada

Of all the world leaders that will mourn the departure of U.S. President Trump, none will miss him as dearly as the King and Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. Although the U.S. has always maintained close ties with Riyadh for more than 70 years, history will likely remember Donald Trump as the Saudi Kingdom’s closest ally. The U.S.-Saudi relationship actually began in 1945 when Franklin Roosevelt met then-Saudi king Ibn Saud in Egypt to finalize the pact that governs their relationship to this day: the U.S. would provide security guarantees for the kingdom in return for the Saudis providing petroleum to the world market at affordable prices. Contrary to popular thought, Saudi Arabia has never been a major supplier of oil to the American market and Saudi oil today represents a mere six per cent of U.S. petroleum imports, but the Saudis remain important players on the world market and have the power to raise or lower market prices by its petroleum output as they did in the 1973 oil crisis. Provoked by Saudi Arabia when it decided to withhold oil from the world market, the 1973 oil shock caused prices at the gas pump to quadruple overnight in the U.S. and did more damage to America's economy than any other country has ever done before or since. In spite of this and other low points, all U.S. presidents have courted Saudi Arabia without exception. Barack Obama visited Saudi Arabia four times as president and sold more than $100-billion in weapons to the kingdom, more than any of his predecessors. He was also a faithful ally who supported the kingdom's catastrophic and costly war against Yemen by providing them with military and diplomatic help. The war in Yemen remains a quagmire for the Saudis, costing them more than $25-billion. However, it is Trump who will go down as the all-time heavyweight champion for unconditional support of the kingdom. He chose Saudi Arabia as his first destination abroad and continues to be an enthusiastic supporter of the Saudi-led war in Yemen. He completely endorsed the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, including his violent purge of his own royal family, and defended him against accusations of ordering the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, contradicting his own CIA director and for which president-elect Joe Biden has promised he would make Saudi Arabia “pay the price.” Indeed, Biden’s campaign rhetoric on Saudi Arabia has been harsh. He has promised to treat the kingdom as a “pariah” if elected and said that there was “very little social redeeming value in the present Saudi leadership.” He even promised an end to arms sales to the Saudis and singled out the Saudi war in Yemen as a humanitarian catastrophe where the Saudis are “murdering children.” Whither Canada? Such a dramatic shift in U.S. policy towards Saudi Arabia should be a wake-up call to Canada to also reconfigure its bilateral relationship with Saudi Arabia to better align it with the incoming Biden administration. Relations between Riyadh and Canada have remained tense since then-foreign minister Chrystia Freeland tweeted that Saudi Arabia should free its political prisoners, which provoked the ire of the Saudi Crown Prince, who did not care to be given a lesson by Canada. The Crown Prince has so little respect for Canada that he allegedly sent a team of assassins to eliminate a former Saudi intelligence chief who evaded the purge and is currently living in Toronto. In spite of this drama, Saudi Arabia remains Canada’s top client for military equipment, driven by a $15-billion contract with General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS) in London, Ont., to provide armoured vehicles to the Saudi national guard—even though the deal continues to attract great criticism from human rights groups who wish to see Canada end military sales to a country with such a poor human rights record. However, with approximately 3,000 Ontario jobs on the line at the GDLS plant, the Trudeau government has so far resisted the calls to terminate the contract. As Ontario voters will determine the next government, Justin Trudeau wants to avoid being the one to send 3,000 Ontarians to the unemployment line. If Biden holds true to his promises and halts all military sales to the Saudi kingdom, it is quite likely that he will ask his closest allies, like Canada, to stand with him. This would present Trudeau with a mighty dilemma: acquiesce to Biden’s request or turn him down to save 3,000 jobs in a province he needs to win if he is to remain prime minister. Ross O’Connor has been foreign and national security advisor to Stephen Harper and director of policy to two foreign ministers. Follow him on Twitter @RosOConchobhair. The Hill Times

Shift in U.S.-Saudi Arabia relations could mean a wake-up call for Canada

If U.S. president-elect Joe Biden holds true to his promises and halts all military sales to the Saudi kingdom, it is quite likely that he will ask his closest allies, like Canada, to stand with him.

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Shift in U.S.-Saudi Arabia relations could mean a wake-up call for Canada

If U.S. president-elect Joe Biden holds true to his promises and halts all military sales to the Saudi kingdom, it is quite likely that he will ask his closest allies, like Canada, to stand with him.

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