Canada bets on democracy in the South Caucasus

Foreign Affairs Minister Marc Garneau’s decision to appoint Stéphane Dion as a special envoy “to explore options for Canada to better support Armenian democracy” on June 25, went largely unnoticed, as most news emanating from the South Caucasus tends to do. It may well be a signal, however, of Canada’s intention to play a constructive role in a region from which it has been traditionally absent. To remind, Canada was thrust in the throes of the brutal war in Artsakh (or Nagorno-Karabakh) last fall, upon the discovery that Canadian technology–embedded in Turkish-made drones–had been used to bomb Artsakh, contrary to the purported terms of the export permits granted by Global Affairs Canada. To their credit, the former and current ministers of foreign Affairs, François Philippe Champagne and Marc Garneau, were quick to suspend and then cancel the relevant export permits to Turkey, despite protests from its dishonest NATO ally. The episode highlighted the weaknesses of Canada’s Export and Import Permits Act regime and led to a report on the matter by the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade. It also triggered a discussion about the role Canada should play in the region. Canada resisted calls by some (like Conservative Senator Leo Housakos) to live up to its legacy as a human rights pioneer and recognize Artsakh’s independence, as the only viable path to protect the local population’s rights to self-determination. It has preferred instead to call for a return to negotiations, under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Co-operation Minsk Group co-chaired by Russia, France, and the United States. Canada also lent its voice to international calls for the release of Armenian prisoners of war still in illegal Azerbaijani captivity. One can assume that Garneau has concluded that Canada does not have the clout nor the strategic interest to influence the peace process, in which Russia, France, and the United States are already heavily invested. Dion’s mandate for Armenia, in fact, deliberately steers clear of the Artsakh issue. Critics will argue that the limited scope of Dion’s mandate cannot provide adequate redress for Canada’s responsibility in the conflict, or that Armenia presently has more pressing humanitarian and security needs. This may well be true and Dion’s mandate should, indeed, not preclude Canada from reacting against further atrocities, which Azerbaijan has all but promised it will commit. Stéphane Dion, Canada's ambassador to Germany and special envoy to the European Union, was tasked in June with a mission 'to explore options for Canada to better support Armenian democracy.' The Hill Times file photograph Rather than staying entirely on the sidelines, however, Canada has identified the consolidation of democratic governance as a point of engagement with the region, and as a signal of support for Armenia. The post-war reality in the South Caucasus certainly made Canada’s choice much easier. Armenia, still hurting from the devastating effects of the war and the ensuing humanitarian emergency, was able to hold free and fair democratic parliamentary elections in June. In Azerbaijan, by contrast, autocrat Ilham Aliyev has only grown more belligerent, attempting military advances in Armenia proper, rejecting international calls to return hundreds of still-detained prisoners of war and captured civilians, subjecting them instead to shameful show trials, and inaugurating a bizarre and horrific “Military Trophies Park” whose sole purpose seems to be to dehumanize Armenians and celebrate their death. While Azerbaijan has for many years used its oil revenues to whitewash its reputation abroad either through hosting glamourous events (e.g. Formula 1 Racing or Euro Cup matches) or through its multi-billion dollar slush fund aimed at buying off Western politicians and academics, it has also recently taken another page out of the Saudi Arabian playbook by literally hunting down dissidents abroad, like blogger Mahammad Mirzali, presently in France. To nobody’s surprise, the Aliyev regime has also been recently identified as a client of the Israeli NSO group, using the spyware to crack down even further on journalists and the few remnants of an independent civil society. To all those who entertained the illusory notion that Canadian neutrality or bothside-ism had any constructive value for the region, or who shockingly suggested that it was time for Canada to engage with Azerbaijan instead, its omnipotent president was quick to provide a reality check, reacting to an objectively moderate Canadian statement about the return of prisoners of war with the following rant: “What does Canada consider itself to be? Is it perhaps a superpower we didn’t know of? It is probably a second Luxembourg, a second superpower we didn’t know of. Let them mind their own business.” That Garneau designated Stéphane Dion to explore such possibilities sends another signal that did not go unnoticed: Dion is not only a top Canadian diplomat to the European Union and former minister of foreign affairs, but has also long been a friend of Armenia throughout his political career, and forged strong connections to the Armenian community in Canada (his former riding of Saint-Laurent is home to an Armenian school and community centers). Dion, additionally, seems determined to make his mission a success and must know that much depends on his ability to convince Garneau and Global Affairs to earmark sufficient investments to allow follow-through on his mission report. As Canada’s representative to the EU, he need not look too far: the EU just recently pledged to invest $1.5-billion euros in Armenia over the next five years in economic, environmental, and IT initiatives. That Canada chose its own complementary path bodes well for its foray in the South Caucasus. Armenians fondly remember Canada’s presence at the 2018 Francophonie summit in Yerevan (attended by both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Québec Premier François Legault) and were hopeful that it heralded a new era in bilateral relations. They are also rightfully proud of the progress the country has made towards democratic governance, in a region generally dominated by iron-fisted dictators. Canada’s engagement will thus undoubtedly be welcomed with open arms. In the most ideal scenario, Canada’s involvement, if it lives up to expectations, will not only signal to Armenia that its march towards democracy has not gone unnoticed but may perhaps even inform citizens of Azerbaijan that countries like Canada–superpower or not–still attach value to democracy, and are willing to support it. Garneau’s press release, notably, indicated that democratic progress “is of critical importance not only for Armenian society but for the region.” Aliyev’s rhetorical ramblings about Canada are textbook examples of an autocrat’s bravado. Garneau and Dion, however, should seize this invitation to demonstrate what, indeed, Canada considers itself to be. Vrouyr Makalian is a public law attorney, member of the Québec Bar, and former policy advisor in the Senate of Canada. The Hill Times