Canada is missing out in the South Caucasus

Canada is losing diplomatic prestige and economic opportunity in the South Caucasus. It is missing its chance to make a crucial difference for confidence-building and peace-building in the aftermath of the Second Karabakh War, between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which lasted 44 days from Sept. 27 until Nov. 10, 2020. Armenia had occupied not only the former Soviet territory of Nagorno-Karabakh but also seven adjacent administrative districts in Azerbaijan. All these territories were affirmed as integral parts of Azerbaijan by four UN Security Council resolutions in 1993. Nearly 30 years of diplomatic immobility, relying on the failed Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, coupled with the ecological devastation wrought on the territories by the Armenian occupation, led Azerbaijan to take matters into its own hands. Relying upon Article 51 of the UN Charter, which provides for the right of states to engage in military activities in defence of their own territory, Baku succeeded in taking back most of the occupied territories. The Nov. 10 ceasefire agreement, negotiated in Moscow under Russia’s aegis, provided for the withdrawal of all Armenian military forces, although this has not yet occurred in the territory where Russian “peacekeepers” are emplaced. Over the past 15 to 20 years, Azerbaijan built its national power and prestige and successfully asserted itself as a middle power—like Canada. It is difficult to understand why Ottawa would not take the opportunity to deepen ties with a like-minded country in a critical region in the world, particularly given its influential presidency of the Non-aligned Movement, which was so successful that it was extraordinarily extended for another year. Like Canada, Azerbaijan values multiculturalism. Archeological excavations reveal its respected Jewish community to be at least 1,500 years old. It is possible that the history goes back to Nebuchadnezzar’s conquest of Jerusalem in 586 BCE, which led to the Babylonian captivity, as it is documented that Jews arrived in what is now Georgia at that time. Azerbaijan is the only country in the world where Shi’a and Sunni Muslims pray together. Like Canada, Azerbaijan advocates and acts in favour of a rules-based international order. Although the country’s human rights record could stand some improvement, the secular nature of the Azerbaijani government and its practice of the norm of multiculturalism gives it an approach that is similar to Canada’s on a number of issues on the international agenda. There is a small but active Azerbaijani community in Canada, including Canadian citizens. Certain Canadian politicians have extended relations with this expatriate community in favour of promoting intercultural friendship and international understanding. There are bilateral interparliamentary working groups in both countries. The expulsion of Armenian military forces from most of Karabakh (they remain in the part occupied by Russian "peacekeepers") also gives Canadian industry great opportunities to participate in the economic reconstruction of the region, if only they would recognize it. Azerbaijan is striking deals with many countries for this purpose, including in sectors where Canada has the advantage of a leading edge, such as renewable energy technology and “smart city” construction. Canada is losing not only prestige through this refusal, but also economic opportunity. Azerbaijan remains a dynamic economy with many chances for participation, particularly in the reconstruction of Karabakh. These chances are in sectors where Canada has a particular advantage, including smart-city implementation and the conservation and restoration of cultural heritage. Canada still has the opportunity to make important contributions to the humanitarian problem of the de-mining of the formerly occupied territories. Azerbaijan has dynamic economic reconstruction plans, indeed ambitious plans for the whole country, now being elaborated for the entire decade of the 2020s before us. Canada risks being further marginalized in this important region of the world, that the South Caucasus represents. Of the three South Caucasus countries, Azerbaijan is clearly the dominant local player. Its population is one and a half times greater than that of Armenia and Georgia together, and its gross domestic product is nearly twice that of the other two combined. It is incomprehensible that Ottawa and Canadian industry should let such an opportunity pass without seizing it. Robert M. Cutler is a fellow of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. The Hill Times