Reversing the trend for Canadian energy

Canada’s energy sector has gone through substantive change over the past decade, but progress towards two important goals—sustainable energy solutions and greater energy efficiency—remains elusive. Primary energy sources in Canada remain dominated by natural gas (39 per cent of the energy mix in 2020) and oil (37 per cent of total energy). With only 0.5 per cent of the world’s total population, our country currently consumes 2.1 per cent of the world’s energy. Why has progress been so difficult to achieve? Part of the reason for lack of progress is that a decade ago, Canada was a world leader in renewable energy adoption, largely due to our large natural endowment of hydro-electric capacity. In 2012, Canada had 18 per cent renewables in our energy mix, outpacing the global average (12 per cent) and substantively greener than the U.S. (six per cent). Perhaps the early lead left Canadians complacent on this front, because the latest data (2020) suggests that we have seen little to no progress on overall renewable uptake since then. Our current combined strength in hydro (12 per cent), biomass (five per cent), and other renewables (one per cent) remains at the 18 per cent level, while the global average has risen to 15 per cent, and while countries like Sweden, with 43 per cent renewables in their energy mix, have moved far beyond our level of green energy adoption. Canada is now firmly in the middle of the pack in the shift to renewable energy; having squandered an early lead, can we make up the distance? We have not fared much better when it comes to energy efficiency. While Natural Resources Canada rightly highlights the downward trend in our greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy consumed, a different pattern emerges when we look at energy use per capita. IEA statistics suggest that Canada’s energy use has risen from 10.7 EJ in 2012 to 12.7 EJ in 2020, while population has gone from 34.7 million to 38.3 million over the same period. This means that per capita energy use has shifted from 308 GJ per capita in 2012 to 333 GJ per capita in 2020, a positive trend which sees individual Canadians using more, not less, energy every year. As it currently stands, Canadian per capita energy use is more than four times higher than the global average; while our country is cold and large, it remains substantively higher than many other northern nations, and represents a tremendous hurdle in any plan to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050. It remains to be seen if trends in energy use can be reversed, although data from the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic offers some indication of how lifestyle change can ultimately help us address these challenges. Between 2019 and 2020, Canadian energy use dropped for the first time in over a decade, both in absolute terms (from 13.4 EJ to 12.8 EJ) and in per capita use (from 355 GJ/capita to 333 GJ/capita). Certainly, in the early days of the pandemic, strict lockdowns led to a dramatic change in the lifestyle of Canadians, with substantively less traffic and congestion; however, rebounds in energy use began to be seen by 2021, and as the pandemic eases pent-up demand for energy could drive emissions back up. In the early days of the pandemic, strict lockdowns led to a dramatic change in the lifestyle of Canadians, with substantively less traffic and congestion; however, rebounds in energy use began to be seen by 2021, and as the pandemic eases pent-up demand for energy could drive emissions back up. Unsplash photograph by Nabeel Syed The elephant in the room remains Canada’s role as a major producer of petroleum and natural gas. As the world faces an uncertain future given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy prices have skyrocketed, with oil prices once again into the $100-plus per barrel range—a figure that not long ago seemed almost impossible to contemplate. These prices make Canadian oil projects competitive; the unfolding situation in Eastern Europe will likely translate into increased demand for petroleum products. This will put incredible pressure on governments in Ottawa and Edmonton, and complicate the pathway to net zero. What Canada desperately needs is an energy plan. Later in March we are promised the first iteration of Canada’s net-zero pathway, which may serve as a de facto blueprint for how we might move forward. But the challenge that we face is that achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions cannot happen unless there are very significant changes to the ways we produce and use energy. If we are going to become major contributors to electric vehicles, or the hydrogen economy, or any of the myriad components that the net-zero future will require, we will need careful planning to achieve it. The lack of a plan simply reinforces the status quo. In the face of a climate emergency and increasingly challenging national and international targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions, Canada is currently trending in the wrong direction. Bold leadership is required to change our trajectory, while maintaining our role as a leader in energy. Dr. Warren Mabee is associate dean and director of the School of Policy Studies at Queen's University. He is the Canada Research Chair in Renewable Energy Development and Implementation, with a specialty in bioenergy technology and policy. The Hill Times