Feds must reverse volatile footprint in Indo-Pacific region with release of $2.3-billion plan, say experts

The Liberal government announced, what it is calling, a “generational” shift in Canada’s approach in the Indo-Pacific region with new funds to deepen trade links, enhance defence and security, and expand diplomatic capacity, but experts say the success of the strategy will rest on if engagement will be sustained. Canada’s presence in the region, which contain some of the fastest growing economies, has been intermittent over previous decades. Through a new strategy, Ottawa seeks to define how it will engage with an increasingly belligerent Chinese government, as well as how it can enhance its link with powerful economies in South Korea, Japan, and India, as well as rapidly developing nations in Southeast Asia. A group of ministers announced the long-anticipated nearly $2.3-billion five-year strategy at a Nov. 27 event in Vancouver, including Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly (Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Que.), International Trade Minister Mary Ng (Markham-Thornhill, Ont.), International Development Minister Harjit Sajjan (Vancouver South, B.C.), and Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino (Eglinton-Lawrence, Ont.). Defence Minister Anita Anand (Oakville, Ont.) unveiled defence components of the strategy later in the day in a virtual press conference. “ sends a clear message to the region that Canada is here and that they can trust that we are here to stay,” Joly said. “The current moment demands more of Canada,” she said. “The region is now looking at us to step up our game.” Joly noted that the “central tenet” of the strategy is acting in Canada’s interest without “compromising” its values. It contains five strategic objectives, which include peace and security, trade and investment, “invest in and connect people,” green economy, and Canada as an “active and engaged partner to the Indo-Pacific.” International Trade Minister Mary Ng says she has taken 11 trips to the Indo-Pacific region this year. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Speaking to The Hill Times just prior to the strategy's Nov. 27 release, a number of Indo-Pacific experts and former diplomats stressed the need for Canada to have a sustained engagement in the region to foster an increased potential of success for the strategy. “We are considered as being inconstant in terms of our attention. We get enthusiastic for a period and then they don’t see much of us for years,” said Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada president Jeff Nankivell, a former Canadian diplomat who was consul general in Hong Kong and deputy head of mission to China. “That’s what you hear from leaders in the region in Asia, particularly in southeast Asia. They will say, ‘Canada has come and gone over the years. We don’t see a sustained commitment,’” he said. “That’s the challenge that Canada has to address.” Through the strategy, Nankivell said Canada is seeking to develop a “critical mass” of sustained engagement that will “put Canada on the map in a sustained way that we have not been in the past.” Earlier this month, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced $24.5-million over five years to the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada for a “physical presence” in the region. Nankivell said the plan is to establish an office in Singapore. Trudeau's Southeast Asia trip shows region a 'priority,' but 'missed opportunity' not to have plan in place, say experts The early stages of the increased engagement were seen through Trudeau’s (Papineau, Que.) visit to the ASEAN, G20, and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summits earlier this month. The G20 summit was held in Indonesia. Trudeau made the decision to attend the Indo-Pacific-based summits, while forgoing a trip to the COP27 climate conference in Egypt. Not all leaders made the decision to go to all three summits, such as U.S. President Joe Biden who skipped the APEC summit. University of Toronto professor Janice Stein, who served as co-chair of the Indo-Pacific Advisory Committee, said there is “no question” that Trudeau made the summit visits a priority. “He is trying to signal to partners in the region that this will now be the focus of his attention,” he said. “Canada has been engaged, but in an erratic way in this part of the world and in the Indo-Pacific that just doesn’t work. It’s not about coming; it’s about staying and engaging in a very sustained way.” She said that will include a trust-building process to build Canada’s reputation in the region. “You can’t just say, ‘We’re trustworthy and reliable.’ You have to earn it,” Stein said. “It’s pretty clear about how you earn it. You come, you stay, you engage, and you stay and engage over the long term.” When announcing the strategy, Ng highlighted her 11 visits to the region this year. Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Indo-Pacific program director Jonathan Berkshire Miller said it wasn’t “ideal” for Trudeau to attend the three summits in the region without a strategy in place. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau travelled to three Indo-Pacific-based summits earlier this month. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade He said it would have been “really powerful” for Trudeau to travel to the region with a plan in place. Japanese Ambassador Kanji Yamanouchi told The Hill Times in June that it would be “nice” for the strategy to be released by the APEC summit. Miller said Canada needs to run an extra mile to get attention in the region, remarking that it was a “missed opportunity” in not having the strategy in place earlier. Responding to the initial announcement of commitments before the full-fledged strategy was released, Miller said he was concerned that some of the initiatives were speaking more towards a Canadian audience than an audience in the region. “In order to have an effective strategy, it needs to be accepted by the region,” he said. Former Canadian diplomat Deanna Horton, a past ambassador to Vietnam from 2008 to 2010, said the success of the strategy won’t be known until at least one or two years down the line. “Canada is seen in Asia as someone who shows up at the table and then leaves, and then shows up again and then leaves,” she said. “In terms of the relationships that I think are really important for Canada in the future, the key will be the sustainability of the government’s efforts.” Horton said the strategy will contribute to meeting the government’s objectives, but she will be watching whether Canada follows up with engagement after the announcement and the rollout of new funding. Carleton University professor Fen Hampson said it is better for Canada to be “late to the party” than “never” to show up. “It’s obviously been a long-time coming,” he said, noting Canada has to lay the groundwork to deepen ties across the region in various economic, defence, security, and climate change files. “A whole-of-government engagement approach is really going to be important investment, in terms of personnel resources, programming, and so on,” said Hampson, who recently co-edited Indo-Pacific: New Strategies for Canadian Engagement with a Critical Region. Key components of the strategy include boosting Canada’s diplomatic capacity in the region and enhancing defence capabilities. It earmarks $492.9-million over five years for an “enhanced defence presence and contribution,” as well as $750-million over three years for infrastructure support to increase FinDev Canada’s work in the region. The Indo-Pacific strategy notes that China, Ambassador Cong Peiwu is pictured, is an 'increasingly disruptive global power.' The Hill Times photograph by Sam Garcia While the strategy document notes that investments will build engagement across the region, there is “particular attention” being paid to Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Japan, as well as countries apart of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Pacific Island nations. The region, according to the strategy, contains countries with which Canada “fundamentally disagrees.” It said Canada “must be clear-eyed about the threats and risks they pose,” but noted that certain threats, including climate change and nuclear disarmament, are “too important to tackle in isolation.” The strategy doesn’t specifically name those countries. On China, the strategy noted that Ottawa’s “evolving approach” with Beijing is a “critical part” of the strategy, calling China an “increasingly disruptive global power.” “Our approach to China is shaped by a realistic and clear-eyed assessment of today’s China,” the strategy asserted. The strategy reinforced Canada’s commitment to the “One China” policy regarding Taiwan, and noted that Ottawa will continue its “multifaceted engagement” with Taipei and will “oppose unilateral actions that threaten the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.” Other regional sections of the strategy deal with India, the North Pacific, and ASEAN. Canada is currently in trade talks with ASEAN and Indonesia, and is working towards an interim trade deal with India. The government plans to appoint an Indo-Pacific trade representative. It is looking to launch “large scale” trade missions to the region and open the first Agriculture and Agri-Food office on the ground. Commitments that come with $45-million in funds over five years and $31.8-million over five years, respectively. To increase diplomatic engagement, Canada is also appointing a special envoy for the Indo-Pacific region, as well as increasing its diplomatic “presence and engagement,” which includes opening its first embassy in Fiji. It has earmarked $100-million over five years to boost Canada’s capabilities in its embassies and high commissions in the region. nmoss@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

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Feds must reverse volatile footprint in Indo-Pacific region with release of $2.3-billion plan, say experts

Canada needs to address a history of inconsistent engagement in the Indo-Pacific if the new strategy and funding are to be effective, experts say.

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